Friday, May 6, 2011

Limited Resources

Ryan Avent looks at the commodity price boom and the rapid development in emerging markets, and comes away with this observation:
The ADB is saying that 3 billion Asians could reach European income levels by 2050, on top of the billion affluent Europeans and North Americans, not to mention the contemporary ranks of rich Latin Americans and Africans.
I don't think it's impossible to imagine a world in which four times as many people enjoy rich-world living standards as is currently the case. But for it to be possible, humanity must either start discovering and exploiting new earthlike planets, or come up with revolutionary new ways to increase terrestrial supplies of critical resources, or dramatically decrease the resource-intensity of wealth. The mechanism that will encourage one or some (or, I suppose, all) of these developments is high resource prices. And until those developments materialise, high prices will act, instead, to check growth. Or so it seems to me.
Dramatically decrease the resource-intensity of wealth.  In other words, the world must make improvements in standard-of-living without being as wasteful as America has.  Our first step has to be increasing efficiency in transportation and electrical distribution, as both are tremendously wasteful.  If we don't, our standard-of-living will decrease dramatically.

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