Monday, May 16, 2011

Manufacturing Data Shows Weaker Recovery

Mike Mandel, (via Mark Thoma):
There’s been a lot of happy talk recently about the revival of U.S. manufacturing .  According to an article in the New York Times,  “manufacturing has been one of the surprising pillars of the recovery. “  In a Forbes.com column entitled “Manufacturing Stages A Comeback,”  well-known geographer Joel Kotkin talks about “the revival of the country’s long distressed industrial sector.”  The Economist writes that “against all the odds, American factories are coming back to life.”*
Truly, I’d like to believe in the revival of manufacturing as much as the next person. Manufacturing, in the broadest sense,  is an essential part of the U.S. economy, and any good news would be welcome. 
Unfortunately,  the latest figures do not back up the cheerful rhetoric.
Newly-released data suggest that the manufacturing recession was deeper than previously thought, and the factory recovery has been weaker. On May 13 the Census Bureau issued revised numbers for factory shipments,  incorporating the results of the 2009 Annual Survey of Manufacturers. 
He follows up with a number of charts, which show that previous data releases were revised downward significantly.  I also think sentiment numbers in manufacturing have been trending downward, while still on the expansion side.  I would anticipate some further decreases in upcoming months.

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