trader889
Jan 26, 11:18 PM
You can't tell much about where a company is going by looking at P/E, as by definition, this is a backwards-looking statistic. All of the companies you mention are growing far more slowly than Apple, which is why their trailing P/E ratios are lower. This is sort of what you said, but it's worth clarifying that you can't necessarily compare P/E ratios between companies with vastly different growth rates.
True, that's why I like to look at the PEG Ratio (P/E to Growth). If we take the current price of 130 minus cash net of payables and receivables (approx $17 a share), you get 113 for the "enterprise" value of Apple. I'll give it a conservative $5/share earnings this year, for a P/E of 23. According to Yahoo, we have an estimate of 30% growth this year, so we are getting a PEG of less than 1 for this year. Less than 1 is cheap, HOWEVER, it doesn't mean it can't/won't get cheaper.
I'm long Apple, so I have a bias, but here are some things to think about:
1) Market is reacting to bad numbers for the ipod, supposedly bad numbers for the iphone, recession concerns etc.. Do you think Apple is not going to come out with anything new this year that can add to the bottom line?
2) Apple is opening up more new stores worldwide. I believe their average sales at the stores is about $4000/sq foot. Their first China store is opening up in Beijing this year (think Olympics). Also, despite some of the headlines about no China iphone deal, CEO of China Mobile (370 million subscribers) stated this past weekend in Davos, Switzerland "We've not started any formal negotiations with Apple. The door is open to all for discussions about fashionable phones". This pretty reiterates what Steve Jobs said. Also, let's not forget all the other countries that have no iphone deals.
3) $18 billion in cash. Let's say that this earns 2%. Comes out to about 30,000,000 a month or .03 per share in earnings just on interest. On the conference call, I think one of the analysts said that Apple is averaging about $1 billion a quarter in cash, although last quarter was killer when they added $3 billion.
4) 45% of Apple's revenues come from overseas. This will only get larger as they open more stores overseas. Unless we get a worldwide recession, overseas sales should help cushion any US slowdown. Also, all the US analysts keep coming up with their updates based upon their "channel" checks, does this include overseas channel checks? I doubt it. So be wary of what they say.
5) Personally, I think the Macbook Air was developed with Japan in mind. In previous conference calls, CFO said Japan was one of the weaker markets. As some of you may know, Japan loves small, ultraportable computers.
Feel to comment/criticize, but as one poster said, if you think Apple is finished as a company, sell. If you think the future still looks good, don't look at the price of Apple for 3 months or as Warren Buffet says, 10 years..lol.
True, that's why I like to look at the PEG Ratio (P/E to Growth). If we take the current price of 130 minus cash net of payables and receivables (approx $17 a share), you get 113 for the "enterprise" value of Apple. I'll give it a conservative $5/share earnings this year, for a P/E of 23. According to Yahoo, we have an estimate of 30% growth this year, so we are getting a PEG of less than 1 for this year. Less than 1 is cheap, HOWEVER, it doesn't mean it can't/won't get cheaper.
I'm long Apple, so I have a bias, but here are some things to think about:
1) Market is reacting to bad numbers for the ipod, supposedly bad numbers for the iphone, recession concerns etc.. Do you think Apple is not going to come out with anything new this year that can add to the bottom line?
2) Apple is opening up more new stores worldwide. I believe their average sales at the stores is about $4000/sq foot. Their first China store is opening up in Beijing this year (think Olympics). Also, despite some of the headlines about no China iphone deal, CEO of China Mobile (370 million subscribers) stated this past weekend in Davos, Switzerland "We've not started any formal negotiations with Apple. The door is open to all for discussions about fashionable phones". This pretty reiterates what Steve Jobs said. Also, let's not forget all the other countries that have no iphone deals.
3) $18 billion in cash. Let's say that this earns 2%. Comes out to about 30,000,000 a month or .03 per share in earnings just on interest. On the conference call, I think one of the analysts said that Apple is averaging about $1 billion a quarter in cash, although last quarter was killer when they added $3 billion.
4) 45% of Apple's revenues come from overseas. This will only get larger as they open more stores overseas. Unless we get a worldwide recession, overseas sales should help cushion any US slowdown. Also, all the US analysts keep coming up with their updates based upon their "channel" checks, does this include overseas channel checks? I doubt it. So be wary of what they say.
5) Personally, I think the Macbook Air was developed with Japan in mind. In previous conference calls, CFO said Japan was one of the weaker markets. As some of you may know, Japan loves small, ultraportable computers.
Feel to comment/criticize, but as one poster said, if you think Apple is finished as a company, sell. If you think the future still looks good, don't look at the price of Apple for 3 months or as Warren Buffet says, 10 years..lol.
Small White Car
Apr 12, 09:52 AM
Hmmm. I was fully convinced that dethmaShine was being totally sarcastic with his posts. Seemed obvious to me.
But I see that 5 other posters don't think so. Those are some pretty big odds...5/1...am I really right?
Yeah, I still think I am. :p
Edit: 7 now!
But I see that 5 other posters don't think so. Those are some pretty big odds...5/1...am I really right?
Yeah, I still think I am. :p
Edit: 7 now!
carve
Nov 29, 05:09 PM
This downhill longboard deck (Landyachtz Evo):
http://www.xtreme-adrenaline.com/itemimages/Landyachtz-Evo-Complete1.jpg
Hello 50MPH+ :D
Blah don't get an Evo, they suck all the fun out of downhill. Look into an Earthwing Belly Racer or a Comet VooDoo Doll
http://www.xtreme-adrenaline.com/itemimages/Landyachtz-Evo-Complete1.jpg
Hello 50MPH+ :D
Blah don't get an Evo, they suck all the fun out of downhill. Look into an Earthwing Belly Racer or a Comet VooDoo Doll
Zunjine
Apr 28, 11:49 AM
I think the idea of winning and losing here is far more subtle than can be expressed in terms of market share or sales figures. The mobile OS arena is likely to mature into a three player game; Android and WinMob will take the largest user bases - I don't think any analyst would disagree with this. There is no way that Apple's model can compete on absolute sales to the multi-device approach of their competition. But that's only a tiny part of the picture.
Look at the personal computer space. See how much money Apple makes with a fraction of the worldwide install base of Windows? If Apple can hold onto 15-20% of the mobile OS market (which I think they will) they will be the most profitable of any of the players in the game by a massive margin. What's more they are likely to hold on to the upper end of the demographic, just as they do in personal computers. Their customers will be high earners who will buy music and apps and other content. They'll be invested in the ecosystem in a way which Android users will not be.
Right now Apple is a huge player in the smartphone business, the only player worth talking about in the tablet game and makes more money from selling personal computers than anyone out there. They own the OS and the hardware and they have placed themselves at the centre of the software ecosystem. This is an integrated approach which no one else offers. This makes them unique. No one competes with Apple because no one else does what Apple does. I don't think Jobs and co. will be weeping into their skinny lattes at the growth of Android or their market share dipping. They'll be too busy counting the money - same as their software partners who are making more from iOS development than all the other platforms put together.
The future is bright. We consumers now have three top notch mobile OS options and dozens of great pieces of hardware. RIM will go bye-bye soon I fear - WinMob will kill them off. But we're the winners and we have a lot to thank Apple for. I worked in the mobile industry for years and I remember what passed for a smartphone before iPhone. We're living in a future dreamland compared to the crap that came before and that's massively down to Apple raising the bar. Apple wins, Android wins, MS wins and we win. Be happy people.
Look at the personal computer space. See how much money Apple makes with a fraction of the worldwide install base of Windows? If Apple can hold onto 15-20% of the mobile OS market (which I think they will) they will be the most profitable of any of the players in the game by a massive margin. What's more they are likely to hold on to the upper end of the demographic, just as they do in personal computers. Their customers will be high earners who will buy music and apps and other content. They'll be invested in the ecosystem in a way which Android users will not be.
Right now Apple is a huge player in the smartphone business, the only player worth talking about in the tablet game and makes more money from selling personal computers than anyone out there. They own the OS and the hardware and they have placed themselves at the centre of the software ecosystem. This is an integrated approach which no one else offers. This makes them unique. No one competes with Apple because no one else does what Apple does. I don't think Jobs and co. will be weeping into their skinny lattes at the growth of Android or their market share dipping. They'll be too busy counting the money - same as their software partners who are making more from iOS development than all the other platforms put together.
The future is bright. We consumers now have three top notch mobile OS options and dozens of great pieces of hardware. RIM will go bye-bye soon I fear - WinMob will kill them off. But we're the winners and we have a lot to thank Apple for. I worked in the mobile industry for years and I remember what passed for a smartphone before iPhone. We're living in a future dreamland compared to the crap that came before and that's massively down to Apple raising the bar. Apple wins, Android wins, MS wins and we win. Be happy people.
SevenInchScrew
Sep 14, 12:07 PM
Halo: Reach Legendary Edition
Halo: Reach Limited Edition Xbox 360 S
Replacing my old Xbox 360 Elite. Can't wait to get all this set up and play.
http://i51.tinypic.com/334uhbo.jpg
Halo: Reach Limited Edition Xbox 360 S
Replacing my old Xbox 360 Elite. Can't wait to get all this set up and play.
http://i51.tinypic.com/334uhbo.jpg
michaelrjohnson
Jul 21, 10:38 AM
3 GHZ BY NEXT YEAR
oh wait... ;)
LOL... But this time it might actually happen! (No thanks to IBM)
oh wait... ;)
LOL... But this time it might actually happen! (No thanks to IBM)
Yaboze
Apr 25, 12:36 PM
Others have said it and I'll say it again.....
We need a 24" screen size, or something close to it.
21 to 27".....there's too much of a jump. 21" is too small for many and 27" may be too large.
23-25" is the sweet spot.
We need a 24" screen size, or something close to it.
21 to 27".....there's too much of a jump. 21" is too small for many and 27" may be too large.
23-25" is the sweet spot.
iApples
May 1, 11:11 PM
Twitter is the best news organization.
I agree. That's where I found out about it.
To be honest, as much as it may be a good thing, I have a feeling something bad is going to happen.
The only sad part is that it took the US this long to find him. Osama should of been dead 10 years ago.
I agree. That's where I found out about it.
To be honest, as much as it may be a good thing, I have a feeling something bad is going to happen.
The only sad part is that it took the US this long to find him. Osama should of been dead 10 years ago.
dgree03
Apr 28, 12:08 PM
Silly how? iPhone is a hardware and Android is an OS. This is apple v.s. meat. It's not even fruit v.s. fruit :rolleyes:
Since you are talking about "sale". Can you list any Androids device that outsell the iPhone?
---->>>>>>> Buy one get one free --> only 1 device make money, the second is free. So, for 100 Androids devices got on the customers' hand, only 50 of them are "sold".
No in bogo they BOTH make money. Verizon, Att, Tmobile and Sprint have already paid retail for the phone before customers recieve the contract price. Apple, Samsung, HTC etc have already made their money. Telcos now have to make their money over time with the contract.
So Bogo makes them money also.
Since you are talking about "sale". Can you list any Androids device that outsell the iPhone?
---->>>>>>> Buy one get one free --> only 1 device make money, the second is free. So, for 100 Androids devices got on the customers' hand, only 50 of them are "sold".
No in bogo they BOTH make money. Verizon, Att, Tmobile and Sprint have already paid retail for the phone before customers recieve the contract price. Apple, Samsung, HTC etc have already made their money. Telcos now have to make their money over time with the contract.
So Bogo makes them money also.
GryphonKeeper
Jul 26, 01:34 PM
While it is possible that it is a preventive filing, I think there are a number of indications that I mentioned that would suggest there is something more. However, it may be two years before we could even something if the tech isn't ready.
Frankly, I hope Apple never names anything "doPod." A marginal product of that name for anything would immediately be labeled "do-doPod."
Frankly, I hope Apple never names anything "doPod." A marginal product of that name for anything would immediately be labeled "do-doPod."
jeffzoom91
Feb 1, 10:31 PM
Super excited.
http://farm1.static.flickr.com/49/190420053_84b4f0c7b4.jpg
Fantastic Lens even on a crop body, had the opportunity to shoot with it for about two weeks across Europe, makes me resent my lowly 24-85 :D
http://farm1.static.flickr.com/49/190420053_84b4f0c7b4.jpg
Fantastic Lens even on a crop body, had the opportunity to shoot with it for about two weeks across Europe, makes me resent my lowly 24-85 :D
redAPPLE
Jul 25, 08:34 AM
I voted negative on this story. As I was hoping that Apple would concentrate on fixing the sticking scrollbars on the current Mighty Mouses, (or make it easier to open them and clean) before they just made it wireless.
Also, I'n not a big fan of using batteries in mice. Why not have a wireless mouse that is re-chargable? Or one that you can use wires with if the battery gets low?
well you could use rechargeable batteries.
Also, I'n not a big fan of using batteries in mice. Why not have a wireless mouse that is re-chargable? Or one that you can use wires with if the battery gets low?
well you could use rechargeable batteries.
bigandtasty
Apr 14, 01:48 AM
I have a feeling that whatever problems they had with the white color was solved a long time ago. I'm sure they've been ready to produce white iPhones fr several months and are waiting till the 1 year anniversary time fram to start shipping the white iPhone to boost sales seeing as the iPhone 5 was pushed back to September.
This. With a White iPhone coming out this close to past annual release date(s) of Next Gen iPhones, this further backs the rumors of a later release (fall) of iPhone 5. I love my iPhone 4 and hope that 5 is more kick ass updates under the same hood. Loved my 2g, disliked 3G, 3GS form factors, but am led further to believe that with iPhone 4 coming in white, this late in the cycle, that the iPhone 5 will be more of a slight upgrade iPhone 4G/GS as mentioned in past posts and forums. My .02
Cheers,
B&T
This. With a White iPhone coming out this close to past annual release date(s) of Next Gen iPhones, this further backs the rumors of a later release (fall) of iPhone 5. I love my iPhone 4 and hope that 5 is more kick ass updates under the same hood. Loved my 2g, disliked 3G, 3GS form factors, but am led further to believe that with iPhone 4 coming in white, this late in the cycle, that the iPhone 5 will be more of a slight upgrade iPhone 4G/GS as mentioned in past posts and forums. My .02
Cheers,
B&T
stukick
Apr 28, 03:53 PM
Well, us Apple folk have to find something to bitch about don't we?
jessica.
Feb 1, 08:03 AM
What a team player.
300 people sitting on their hands, while he 'plays'.
Charming.
Oddly, I agree with you.
I'm not sure I'd see this guy as my idol, not even a little.
Sure, maybe one night where you just get some sort of pass but do you really watch a dirty bitch with **** up your nose and a car you're too wasted to drive?
300 people sitting on their hands, while he 'plays'.
Charming.
Oddly, I agree with you.
I'm not sure I'd see this guy as my idol, not even a little.
Sure, maybe one night where you just get some sort of pass but do you really watch a dirty bitch with **** up your nose and a car you're too wasted to drive?
SmileyBlast!
Apr 13, 02:13 PM
ATV + dock connector is much more realistic.
ATV = All Terrain Vehicle?
Now you are talking. I could see Apple Vehicles.
Way Cool.
ATV = All Terrain Vehicle?
Now you are talking. I could see Apple Vehicles.
Way Cool.
zacman
Apr 22, 04:47 PM
F700, announced 2007 feb, released dec.
iPhone, announced 2007 jan, released june.
it's clear that the f700 is also a copycat....
The GSMArena article is wrong there. It is true that the F700 was officially "introduced in Feb 2007", but it was already shown at the IFA fair in Berlin in autumn 2006.
iPhone, announced 2007 jan, released june.
it's clear that the f700 is also a copycat....
The GSMArena article is wrong there. It is true that the F700 was officially "introduced in Feb 2007", but it was already shown at the IFA fair in Berlin in autumn 2006.
crees!
Jul 26, 02:37 PM
I never said I wasn't going to buy/drool over this mystery product.
I'm just not going to be impressed.
Why would you buy a product you're not impressed with? "Man, this iPod sucks so hard. *drool* I think I'll buy it!" Is this some kind of new teenage lingo? :D
I'm just not going to be impressed.
Why would you buy a product you're not impressed with? "Man, this iPod sucks so hard. *drool* I think I'll buy it!" Is this some kind of new teenage lingo? :D
SchneiderMan
Sep 15, 09:14 PM
Iv'e had both good and bad luck with Hitachi, Seagate and WD. Currently installing the Seagate Momentus XT 500GB drive :D So far it's silent! All my Hitachi's have been clicking. Although last year I purchased a Seagate drive and it clicked very badly so..
RBR2
Apr 12, 02:15 PM
The Thunderbolt Wiki (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thunderbolt_(interface)) has a diagram showing the TB controller's access to things. The accompanying description ("Thunderbolt can be implemented on graphics cards, which have access to DisplayPort data and PCI express connectivity, or on the motherboard of new devices, such as the MacBook Pro.[5][17][22]") implies that a TB compatible PCIe graphics card could bring older systems up-to-date. That would be interesting.
mduser63
Jul 24, 05:51 PM
The user's manual is available on the FCC website (I think it's linked from tuaw.com). Anyway, according to the user's manual, it's a laser mouse in addition to being wireless.
hexonxonx
Apr 29, 05:37 PM
I have to wonder how many people discussing audio quality buy their movies from iTunes vs Blu-Ray.
Just asking since apparently those people are so concerned with getting optimal performance from their media.
Not to take this off topic - but too many people have been duped by all the streaming serves and cable companies to believe they're getting a true HD experience when, in fact, they aren't because of the astronomical bitrate difference between what can be streamed vs delivered by hard media at current.
I don't have a blu-ray player and have no plans on buying one. I also don't have an HD TV, still using a 10+ year old Sony Trinitron. It's not broke so it's not getting replaced till it is.
I buy all my TV shows and on iTunes in HD and watch them on my 15" MBP. I buy movies on iTunes as well as I don't rent and haven't in over 15 years.
Even if Amazon has 69 cent songs, I will likely continue buying on iTunes. Over the past year, most music has been purchased on my iPhone while I am out. Can't do that with Amazon.
Just asking since apparently those people are so concerned with getting optimal performance from their media.
Not to take this off topic - but too many people have been duped by all the streaming serves and cable companies to believe they're getting a true HD experience when, in fact, they aren't because of the astronomical bitrate difference between what can be streamed vs delivered by hard media at current.
I don't have a blu-ray player and have no plans on buying one. I also don't have an HD TV, still using a 10+ year old Sony Trinitron. It's not broke so it's not getting replaced till it is.
I buy all my TV shows and on iTunes in HD and watch them on my 15" MBP. I buy movies on iTunes as well as I don't rent and haven't in over 15 years.
Even if Amazon has 69 cent songs, I will likely continue buying on iTunes. Over the past year, most music has been purchased on my iPhone while I am out. Can't do that with Amazon.
thefunkymunky
Oct 24, 07:52 AM
The Mac in my sig is now up for sale.:rolleyes: :p
bbassett67
Jul 12, 12:37 PM
[QUOTE= As long as there's no Clippy.[/QUOTE]
:(
:(
No comments:
Post a Comment